The first two entries in this series began with a warning not to draw the wrong lessons from Romney's loss of the election. They continued with an admonishment to avoid thinking the way to win in the future is mainly a matter of finding the perfect candidate. Finally, the entries advanced a recognition that Romney's loss and Obama's win was overwhelming attributed to the latter's superior ground game and the advantages of incumbency, namely, time to campaign and a united party base. This entry focuses on recommending a new, winnable ground game for taking back our country back from the leaders who continue to lead it toward financial, economic, and international ruin.
Step 1: Recognize that we can all make a difference
Think back to 2004 when the Democrats lost their bid for the presidency and the Republicans kept control of both houses of Congress. Did they despair? Did they think the future was out of their hands? Did they give up and crawl into a hole? If they had done any of those things, how does one explain their win of the presidency and both houses of Congress (the House in 2006) in 2008? Was this all the work of a conspiratorial network of billionaire donars (like George Soros) and the mainstream media? I'll tell you this, they did conspire and they do continue to conspire.
Step 2: Understand that the secret to winning elections is not "the economy, stupid" it is "turn out, stupid"
Yet, no amount of conspiring would have mattered if the Democrats were unable to turn out the vote. Working beneath the liberal elite are the masses of local offices and political action groups pumping out literature and advertisements in the media their constituents read and watch. At the ground level, there are the foot soldiers who make phone calls, knock on doors, shake hands, listen to the concerns of the people, and persuade them to go out and vote for their candidates. Finally, the people themselves come out in droves and cast their ballots. Many of them are even transported to the polling places by the foot soldiers themselves.
Throughout the recent campaigns we heard stories of the Obama foot soldiers busing people to the polls directly from the Obama rallies. I can not recall similar stories of the Romney campaign rallies. Instead, the Romney team was heavy on donations and speeches from wealthy sponsors. They made scant effort to tap into grassroots support from 'we the people'. If Soros money didn't elect Obama on its own, Trump money didn't get Romney to Washington.
For all the advantages the Republican party has in ideas and solutions, it remains a party that is frustratingly hierarchical. It has changed little in functional outlook and outreach since the 1950's. The Republican playbook for 2012 relied heavily on the following assumptions:
- that Obama's failures and leadership deficiencies were understood and obvious to a majority of the electorate;
- that the power of conservative ideas and solutions communicated through televised speeches and debates was watched, understood, and accepted by a majority of the electorate;
- that the polls conducted by Democrat-leaning pollsters oversampled Obama-leaning likely voters;
- that there was no way Obama voters would turn out in anything approaching the same level as in 2008;
- that campaign stops and rallies featuring Romney and Ryan in key cities amounted to outreach;
- that money and other support from wealthy sponsors amounted to a functional ground game.
Tell me how this playbook has changed from the 1950's, 60's, or 70's? How is this any different from Richard Nixon's 'silent majority' strategy that got him elected and re-elected, in 1968 and 1972 respectively?
Step 3: Realize that blaming demographics is a mistake
The Republicans have a demographic problem with winning over minorities and single, white women, but the Democrats have a demographic problem too: white Democrats are a dying breed. Whites are still a racial/ethnic majority in this country. If the Democrats think they no longer need white voters, they are making a mistake. (However, I have no idea whether or not they are thinking that way.)
The point is, both sides have demographic advantages and challenges. The way to increase the advantages for either side is through outreach. The way for conservatives to win is to pay no attention to the derisive "soul searching" the Democrats recommend of us, and instead copy their innovations in social media and voter turn out.
Step 4: Throw out the old, twentieth century playbook and embrace the outreach innovations the other side has made in social media technology
We need to make more use of internet media and social networking through the web. This is an arena beyond the control of the mainstream television and newspaper media. Freedom Works is a wonderful network to connect conservatives, but we need to use it more. I see too many groups and discussions on there that haven't said or done anything since March or April: tax time. If the Democrats can't afford to stop networking and campaigning, neither can we.
Step 5: Keep the base together...
The grueling Republican primary campaign for the presidency of fall 2011 and spring 2012 was a display of just how knit-picky, petty, and small, conservatives have become in their thinking of what kind of candidate we needed.
- Gingrich was not faithful-enough in his marital history, but we weren't trying to marry the guy.
- Santorum was too religious, but we didn't need him to be our pastor.
- Bachmann was too whiny, but we didn't need to hang out with her.
- Romney was too Mormon (costing him more than 20% of evangelical voters in the general election); too stiff; too rich; the list goes on.
- None of the candidates were Reagan-enough, but there has only been one Reagan, and he's been dead for a while.
Step 6: ... and reach out to Libertarians
Reagan crushed Mondale in 1984 and won 49 states. Just look at this electoral map:
map is from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ElectoralCollege1984.svg
Can you imagine a Republican presidential candidate winning New York, California, and nearly every other blue state, today? We may not see that happen again, but Reagan didn't do it by appealing mainly to conservative, Republican voters. He won an awful lot of liberal voters as well. Let's build a strategy based on a coalition of conservatives, moderates, libertarians, and blue-dogs (fiscally conservative Democrats, how ever many of them are still around). How do we do this? We don't do it by creating third, fourth, and independent parties, each with separate candidates; that way, the Democrats would always win through plurality.
Instead, we come together by setting priorities like Reagan did. We don't campaign on the issues that divide us (abortion, gay marriage, etc.). We must recognize that this country is in grave danger fiscally, economically, and internationally. First, we secure the safety and prosperity of the country. The other issues can be discussed later or sorted out through other cultural actors.
We have to understand that politics is a game of give and take. We have to give a little ground to gain a litttle ground. Reagan would not have gotten his tax cuts if he hadn't assured Senate ruler Ted Kennedy he wouldn't go after entitlements. We have to do something about entitlements today, but the point I'm making is that we can't dig-in our heels and expect to get everything we want. This is not a plan for moderating our views or sacrificing our principles. We can still pursue all our causes through non-governmental entities like churches, educational institutions, and so on; how is that not a conservative position? Let's leave certain things to private actors, not government!
Step 7: Pour time, research, and money into demographic outreach
Let's reach out to Hispanics, African-Americans, Asians (and every other racial/ethnic) minority. Let's stop categorically assuming minorities are lazy and want government to rule their lives. This assumption has never done conservatives any good. This assumption has only thrown red meat to the other side and made the charge of racism and snobbiness seem plausible. Let's stop assuming single, white women, care more about free birth control than they do about finding fullfillment in a meaningful career, family life, or single life.
Why on earth did we not overwhelmingly win over the elderly with the reality that Obama gutted Medicare (put it on the road to extinction by robbing it of $716 billion)? Maybe it is because we assumed they would all tune in to Fox News and watch Paul Ryan explain it to them with his flawless, logical exposition. Why didn't we go to knocking on their doors at their homes and nursing homes, bingo clubs, and other venues? Why didn't we throw our arms around their shoulders and listen to their concerns? The simple answer is, we didn't care enough about them. We thought facts and logic communicated on TV was enough to get their votes. We were wrong!
Why don't we fan out across college campuses and shake hands with the future entrepreneurs of this country, listen to their concerns, and explain to them how joblessness and college debt-default stares them in the face because of Obama's scornful policies toward business, big and small.
Step 8: Watch our mouths
Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the Missouri and Indiana U.S. Senate races with their foolish explanations of their pro-life stances by making it sound like God intends for women to get raped and how raped women do not get pregnant! Thanks to these amateurs, the GOP missed the best chance in a long time to capture control of the U.S. Senate!
Mourdock and Akin have the right to believe what they want, but they deserved to lose. Contrary to what some people believe, Abraham Lincoln was a life-long opponent of slavery. As president of the United States, he put slavery on the road to extinction, not by going after it full-speed ahead, running his mouth about it all day long. Rather, he did it by holding his tongue when he needed to, and by pursuing the goal through patience and cautious statecraft. Let us learn from Lincoln, Mourdock, and Akin alike. With this eight-step ground game, we can't lose in the future.
Jason A.
I like most of these recommendations, perhaps particularly “reach out to libertarians.” I think it is underappreciated how turned off this natural Republican constituency was in 2012 for two reasons: 1) The candidates did not speak to their concerns, but also 2) the party culture from the national to the local was rude and exclusive to its emerging youthful libertarian minority, culminating in new party rules at the convention constructed to enforce uniformity. The appeal of the party is too narrow – clearly! – to be doing this kind of thing. The GOP has to make room for the future or it will become a thing of the past.
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